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AUSTIN, Texas, Oct. 30, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- As the federal government shutdown that began on October 1 continues, new data from Realtor.com®'s October Monthly Housing Report shows early signs of a pause in housing activity in markets with the highest shares of federal employees. While most national housing trends have shown little change so far this fall, housing markets where federal workers make up a larger share of the local labor force—including Washington, D.C., Virginia Beach, and Baltimore—are seeing subtle shifts in buyer and seller behavior as uncertainty weighs on household confidence.

"At this stage, the housing market effects of the federal shutdown appear localized and modest," said Danielle Hale, Chief Economist for Realtor.com®. "In markets like Washington, D.C., Virginia Beach, Oklahoma City, and Baltimore, where many households rely on federal employment, we're seeing buyers take a brief step back as uncertainty persists. However, home prices and inventory trends in these areas continue to move in line with broader national and regional patterns, suggesting that the overall market remains steady for now."

Federal employment is most concentrated in the Washington, D.C. metro, where 11.0% of employed residents work for the federal government, followed by Virginia Beach (7.0%), Oklahoma City (4.2%), and Baltimore (3.7%). In these metros, there has been a modest slowdown in new listings (D.C. -13.9% (month-over-month changes in October compared to November), Virginia Beach -5.1%, Oklahoma City -1.4%, and Baltimore -2.4%)  and a sharper decline in home search activity since the start of October (D.C. -11.5%, Virginia Beach -10.7%, -8.6%, and Baltimore -9.7%), suggesting that potential buyers are pausing their search while paychecks and job security remain uncertain. While sellers in these metros are also pulling back slightly, overall housing supply remains in line with seasonal patterns seen elsewhere across the country.

Other key housing metrics like median list prices, inventory levels, and time on market have shown little movement or no clear departure from the broader regional and national trends. For example, while median list prices per square foot slightly declined month-over-month in D.C., Virginia Beach, and Baltimore, those drops are consistent with typical fall seasonality rather than evidence of shutdown-driven softening.

Table One: Government Shutdown Impacts on the Metros with the Largest Share of Federal Workers

"While the current data points to only mild, localized effects, the longer the shutdown persists, the more likely it is that these markets and potentially others with smaller shares of federal workers could see more meaningful impacts on buyer demand, seller activity, and transaction timelines," added Hale.

Buyers Gain Options, but Inventory Growth Continues to Slow

Homebuyers found more options in October, as the number of actively listed homes rose 15.3% compared to the same time last year, marking the 24th consecutive month of year-on-year inventory gains. However, active listing growth has slowed in each of the last 5 months (down from 17.0% in September, 20.9% in August, 24.8% in July, 28.9% in June, and 31.5% in May).

The number of homes for sale topped 1 million for the sixth consecutive month, and is nearly unchanged since July. Still, nationwide inventory remains 13.2% below typical 2017–2019 levels, about the same as last month, a strong indication that the nationwide inventory recovery has stalled.